投资的真谛

ben

　　投资的真谛是放弃#投资最忌讳的是企图抓住一切机会，实际上，投资的真谛是放弃，放弃不确定的、不值得的、可有可无的机会。还有一句话，投资最重要的核心是什么？保住本金！

ben

　　#钢铁意志造就顶级交易员# /胜利市场的机会很多，做符合自己的交易系统的最重要。术只是手段，道是最终地归宿。始终遵守交易系统纪律需要不同于常人的悟性和钢铁般的意志。查理•芒格曾说过现金和机会的关系：“有性格的人才能拿着现金坐在那里什么事也不做。我能有今天，靠的是不去追逐平庸的机会。”

ben

wilsonkong11515股市八戒：
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" S: d* v- B; k2 a1.        令人赚钱的是个股而非指数。真正赚钱的股票既不是大市值蓝筹股票（基数越大，增速越小），也不是垃圾股，而是企业利润和股东回报随核心价值体现而同步不断增长的股票。
2.        任何推测与时点配合的大盘点位的企图都将被证明是找抽的，事实是连老天都不知道哪怕大盘明天是涨还是跌。这样的预测也没有任何意义。个股亦然，任何个股的短期涨跌都是没有什么规律的，是受到太多短期因素干扰的，没有人能看清这所有因素及力量对比，比如55168哪位实力股友奋力一托，股价上去了一大块，你如何预测？历史证明，连最强有力的坐庄也只能左右股价一时，而控制不了一世。然而个股的长期走势和企业价值存在因果关系。这让我想起了原子：电子跑来跑去，没有规律，但始终围绕着一个核心在转。
- h: |8 v" T; q+ n3.        绝对不要尝试承担任何风险的融资炒股。可以满仓，但不要借一分钱。这样就算输光了还能东山再起，起不来也不要紧，日子换个过法，再学学庄子，修炼到家了还是极品。
4.        一些产品或**随原材料价格剧烈波动而企业暂时没有定价权或者成本转嫁能力的企业，自认为投资者而非投机者的股友最好敬而远之。依我看，坛子里大部分朋友很难对原材料走势作出正确的预判。比如000911 南宁糖业。
  q2 r# z8 a& ?5.        永远不要忘记市盈率。为了适应牛市里炒股的需要，理论家们开发了一项又一项的眩透酷比了的估值模型。我则反复告戒自己：永远不要忘记PE，因为我知道它的本质。PE等于总市值除以净利润，其本质就是投资一个企业多少年可以收回成本的问题。这一方法尤其适用于处于成熟期的企业。试想一个成熟企业的PE为100倍，对于我们短短的人生来说，用100年时间换回投资成本，有现实意义吗？再比如900950 新城B，06年预计PE为6倍左右，姑且不谈成长，目前这样的利润水平只要保持大约6年，赚回的利润就是30亿多，正好从二级市场买回新城B，他现在的总市值就30亿出头。净资产，品牌价值等就已经白赚了，何况还有未来呢？那管它熊市牛市，这样的公司我有什么理由不敢投资的？这也就是为什么全球任何资本市场发展到成熟阶段的成熟企业的PE大多落在了8到20倍这样有现实意义的区间的合理内核吧。当然，市场经常见到奇高的PE，不能简单说不合理，因为PE是动态的。今年1000， 明年就可能50倍，因为利润基数过低。所以不能简单对处于成长期的，或者利润基数过低的企业采用PE来衡量价值。
- l0 N* g# u& n' y- ?7 V6.        价格价值比是我们能依赖的唯一基准。这个比为1，意味着价格合适。如果大于1，就算你买入的是好公司，那也不是一个好买卖，因为这个好公司被高估了。我们要做的就是找出低估的企业，至于市场是牛是熊，不必关心。
) U% w" ], i+ u7 Y" o) l* b3 H+ t7.        如果你总是热爱牛市痛恨熊市，总是乐观或者悲观，总是在三思之前行动或者行动之后三思，大约就是可以离场的时间了。
8 Q# p& i" d2 F8.        想对股市说爱你不容易，它既是天堂，也是地狱。永远记得：股市有风险，投资须谨慎。

ben

I.        It is not the index but individual shares that can earn you money. The real fortune-making shares are neither blue chips with huge market capitals because growth on large base is comparatively slower, nor junk bonds, but those of which corporate margin and shareholders’ reward keep rising with core competence being constantly reinforced.

6 w4 w0 @1 k) }6 B6 |( h2 q! L II.        Any prediction about exact index points at certain times will no doubt get a slap on face. The fact is even God doesn’t know whether the index will go up or down tomorrow. And it makes no sense. The same is true with individual shares. Short-term ups and downs are unpredictable in that there are just too many factors which may interfere in the price of an individual share and nobody is able enough to see all these factors and their power clearly. However, the history has proven many times that corporate value and its long-term market performance are of cause and effect relationship. That reminds me of atom: the movement of electron is irregular, however, it is always around the nucleus and within the atom.
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III.        Never try any means of loan financing in stock market. You can be full in stock, but never borrow any penny. When you go down and out, you can come back again some time later. All you need to think about when you are broke is to change your life style and reduce your human desires to the minimum.
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IV.        If you view yourself as an investor rather than a speculator, keep away from those cyclical companies without or losing pricing power and cost transferable ability. From my point of view, most friends in 55168 cannot predict the price moving orientation of raw materials. One example is 000911 Nanning Sugar Manufacturing.
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V.        Never forget PE. In a bull market, analysers develop a lot of fancy and way cool valuation models to meet customer needs. Fuck them off. However, I always warn myself that PE should never be forgotten. I know the essence of PE. The equation of PE is market capital divided by net profit. It tells that in how many years investors can take their investment back. This variable especially fits into those companies in their maturity stage. Imagine: a mature company with PE at 100. Compared with our short life, does it make any sense if we use 100 years to take our money back? Look at 900950 XinChengB then. The estimated 2006 PE is about 6, which means investors can take their investment back in about 6 years, given the situation that its profit making ability has remained steady in the following decade. At present level, 6-year profit will be over 3 billion CNY, which happens to buy the whole company from the stock market because its market capital is a bit over 3 billion this moment. All the assets, brand name, and etc. are yours, let alone it will keep making profit in the future. What’s more, XCB is a growing company instead of a mature one in these years. Realising this, no matter we are in the fucking bull or bear market, what do you think can prevent us from buying in such a cheap share at the present price? And I guess this is why the average PE level of most mature companies in industrialised countries falls between 8 and 20, such a reasonable and realistic range. Of course, in any stock market, amazingly high PE can often be seen. We cannot simply give our negative comment because PE is not static, but dynamic. A PE at 1,000 can be reduced to only 50 within a year, if the base of its margin is very small. So, PE seems not suitable to evaluate those companies in their growing stage or of which their margin bases are small.
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- m9 l* x; e) J, z1 V VI.        Price/value rate is the only benchmark we can rely on. If this rate is 1, it means the price is appropriate. If the rate is above 1, it’s not a good bargain even you buy in a good company because that good company is over estimated. Cool off your brain, what we need to do is to find out underestimated companies. Bull or bear, let it be.

VII.        If you always love bull but fear bear, if you are always optimistic or pessimistic, if you always act before thinking twice or think twice after acting, it’s about time for you to leave.

' z. J* _2 [2 p  h VIII.        It is not easy to say I love stock market. It can be heaven and it can be hell. Always bear this in mind: Stock market being a perilous place, be discreet when you invest.